Jammu, March 31: At least five glacial lakes in the Kashmir Himalaya have “very high susceptibility” to glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), even though they are not immediately unstable, Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah said on Tuesday.
Speaking in the assembly, Abdullah said a preliminary geospatial analysis was conducted to map downstream exposure of glacial lakes, identifying habitations and critical infrastructure along potential flood paths in districts like Ganderbal, Shopian and Kulgam.
The study was recently conducted by the University of Kashmir, published in the Journal of Glaciology, assessed 155 glacial lakes using hydro-geomorphic indicators such as lake expansion rate, dam stability and surrounding conditions.
According to the study, around 2,704 buildings, nearly 15 major bridges, road segments and at least one hydropower project could be affected in the event of a glacial lake outburst flood — a high-maginitude catastrophic flood caused by the failure of a dam containing a glacial lake.
“The study identified Bramsar, Chirsar, Nundkol, Gangabal and Bhagsar lakes as falling under the ‘very high susceptibility’ category,” he said, replying to a question of National Conference MLA Tanvir Sadiq.
However, the government stressed that such classification does not mean an imminent threat, but indicates a higher likelihood of outburst only under specific triggering conditions”, Abdullah said.
The chief minister said the assessment provides a baseline for understanding vulnerability and prioritising future detailed studies.
Highlighting gaps in accurate risk estimation, the study said that precise assessment of GLOFs requires reliable data on glacial lake volumes, which can only be obtained through field-based bathymetric measurements— finding out depth and topography of water bodies—currently unavailable for most Himalayan lakes. It added that work in this direction has already been initiated by researchers.
To strengthen scientific assessment, the Department of Geo-informatics, University of Kashmir has procured a high-precision RTK-enabled robotic echo-sounding boat with support from the Ministry of Earth Sciences, it added.
“Bathymetric surveys of at-risk glacial lakes in the western Himalaya are planned for 2026, aimed at improving hydrodynamic modelling and downstream risk evaluation”.
The study pointed out that these high-susceptibility lakes pose potential risks to downstream infrastructure.
Outlining mitigation measures, Abdullah said that continuous monitoring of vulnerable lakes through remote sensing and field assessments is being prioritised.
He added that early-warning systems, ecozonation plans for downstream areas and integration of GLOF risk scenarios into district-level disaster preparedness frameworks are part of the future strategy.
Researchers are also working on developing tailored GLOF early-warning systems for mountainous regions, integrating satellite monitoring, field observations, sensor-based hydro-meteorological inputs and near real-time communication systems to ensure timely detection and dissemination of hazard information, it said.
