DUBAI, Aug 29: Six months into the war, Iran’s leadership has consolidated around a group of veteran military commanders and hard-line clerics, signalling its readiness for a prolonged confrontation with the United States while seeking to prevent any fresh unrest at home.
The shift marks a sharp departure from US President Donald Trump’s initial hopes of bringing about regime change in Iran and his subsequent claims that the conflict had paved the way for more moderate voices within the Islamic Republic.
Iran’s new leadership appears deeply sceptical of any agreement with Trump after coming under attack twice while engaged in talks. Tehran is also preparing for the possibility of another US strike once Washington replenishes its stocks of missile interceptors.
At the same time, Iran has threatened to intensify the conflict as the continuing US blockade and planned sanctions place further pressure on an economy already struggling with severe difficulties.
“If he wants to do something, we will retaliate in a seismic manner,” newly appointed Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei said last weekend. In a post on X, he warned that if the economic war continued, “not a single drop of oil will be exported” from the Persian Gulf.
Rezaei’s appointment was part of a series of decrees issued by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei on August 11 and 12 to formalise Iran’s new senior leadership, including key military positions.
Khamenei’s father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and several senior officials were killed in the US-Israeli bombing campaign launched on February 28.
Among the most significant appointments was that of Hossein Taeb as head of the Basij, the Revolutionary Guard’s volunteer force that has played a central role in suppressing protests.
Taeb, a hard-line cleric and former intelligence chief, previously led the Basij during the crackdown on nationwide protests in 2009.
His return to a key security position is being viewed as an indication that the Iranian leadership is determined to prevent any renewed unrest amid growing economic hardship.
The 56-year-old Supreme Leader has not appeared publicly or in recorded video or audio since the Israeli strikes that killed his father. He is also believed to have been wounded in the attacks.
The new appointments have strengthened the influence of longtime allies of the Supreme Leader, including Rezaei and Taeb.
Sascha Bruchmann, an analyst with the International Institute for Strategic Studies’ Middle East office in Bahrain, said the leadership appears to be drawing experienced senior officers into its inner circle to maintain unity.
Rezaei, 71, headed Iran’s Revolutionary Guard during much of its formative period, including the 1980-88 war with Iraq, and has repeatedly contested presidential elections as a hard-line candidate.
Brig Gen Ahmad Vahidi, 68, has been confirmed as commander of the Revolutionary Guard after serving as acting chief following the death of his predecessor. Other senior military officials, including the acting commander of the Guard’s naval forces, Gen Ali Ozmaei, and military chief of staff Gen Ali Abdollahi, have also retained their positions.
Bruchmann said the appointments appear aimed at strengthening internal cohesion by bringing experienced hard-line figures closer to the leadership.
Despite the hard-line appointments, escalation is not considered inevitable. Analysts say Iran could face difficulties in increasing pressure on the US without triggering retaliation that could further weaken the country.
Homayoun Falakshahi, chief oil analyst at global commerce information firm Kpler, said the appointments of Rezaei and Vahidi indicated greater influence for officials favouring a tougher approach.
A ceasefire agreement reached in June quickly collapsed amid renewed exchanges of strikes. Iran has since demanded the release of billions of dollars in frozen assets under the agreement, along with formal authority over the Strait of Hormuz.
President Masoud Pezeshkian remains among the leading voices calling for negotiations. His allies argue that continuing the conflict could further damage Iran’s already weakened economy.
“It would be better to bring the war to an end, since today we enjoy power and dignity and the entire world approved our victory, and the US is hated,” Pezeshkian said last week.
He has also defended the June ceasefire agreement against criticism from hard-liners who claim Tehran made excessive concessions.
Rezaei, while taking a tougher position, has also left open the possibility of an agreement if Washington changes its approach. On Monday, he told Pakistani mediator Gen Asim Munir that the US should change its attitude and take practical steps to implement the ceasefire conditions.
Tehran-based political analyst Ahmad Zeidabadi said there are “serious differences over the future path of the country”, with hard-liners opposing normalisation with Washington.
So far, there have been no indications of fresh mass protests despite mounting difficulties for Iranians in purchasing basic necessities.
Analysts say Taeb’s appointment to head the Basij reflects the leadership’s intention to identify and suppress potential unrest before it develops.
Taeb, 63, previously headed the Basij when it played a major role in suppressing protests following the disputed 2009 presidential election. He later served as chief of the Revolutionary Guard’s intelligence organisation for nearly 13 years before being removed in 2022.
The Basij operates a nationwide network of volunteers with a presence across streets, government institutions and cultural centres, promoting loyalty to Iran’s theocratic system.
In his appointment decree, Khamenei called on Taeb to expand the Basij’s presence in Iranian social life, adopt new technologies and strengthen its activities internationally.
The Basij has increased its visibility during the war, while hard-line supporters have organised nightly rallies in Tehran and other cities to mobilise support and discourage dissent.
In a recent speech, Taeb suggested that greater social control could be necessary, warning that US economic pressure was aimed at creating divisions inside Iran.
He said strengthening mosques as centres of neighbourhood life would help preserve national unity and could prove a greater deterrent than missiles.
