By Tsultim Zangmo
The debate over the Dalai Lama’s reincarnation has taken on a geopolitical hue. As the Dalai Lama turns 90 on 6 July, the question of his successor becomes more pressing. China’s insistence on controlling the reincarnation process through the “Golden Urn” is part of a broader effort to strengthen its hold over Tibet and influence Tibetan Buddhism.
The “Golden Urn,” introduced in 1793 during the Qing dynasty, is a ritual in which names are drawn from a golden vessel to select reincarnated Tibetan Buddhist leaders—an approach now officially endorsed by the People’s Republic of China. In 1995, China rejected the Dalai Lama’s chosen Panchen Lama, Gedhun Choekyi Nyima, and instead appointed Gyaltsen Norbu as the state-approved Panchen Lama, aiming to secure control over the eventual selection of the 15th Dalai Lama.
More recently, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stated that the 15th Dalai Lama would be selected solely through the Golden Urn procedure. However, the Dalai Lama has declared that his reincarnation will be born in the ‘free world’ and selected in a manner consistent with traditional Tibetan Buddhist values.
He further announced that the Gaden Phodrang Trust, established in 2011 in India, would be the sole authority to oversee the selection of his successor. This step aims to protect the spiritual and political legacy of the Dalai Lama lineage from Chinese interference.
This move marks a turning point in the dynamics surrounding the reincarnation process and reaffirms the Dalai Lama’s commitment to preserving Tibetan culture and autonomy. His statements are a direct challenge to Beijing’s influence and are intended to prevent the 15th Dalai Lama from becoming a symbolic figurehead under Chinese control.
By setting up the Gaden Phodrang Trust, the Dalai Lama is sending a clear message that Tibetans will continue their struggle for freedom. As a result, Tibetan Buddhism may witness a situation where two Dalai Lamas emerge—one chosen by the Gaden Phodrang Trust in India, and the other selected by the Chinese government.
If the 15th Dalai Lama is born in India, it could present political challenges. China would refuse to recognize him, potentially straining Sino-Indian relations. This tension was evident when Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s birthday greetings to the Dalai Lama were met with a warning from China over the sensitivity of Tibet-related issues.
The succession of the Dalai Lama is not only a religious issue but also a political one with far-reaching implications. India finds itself at the center of this complex situation. It must maintain a careful balance between sustaining diplomatic relations with China and supporting Tibetan autonomy.
With over 94,000 Tibetans living in exile in India, China is expected to closely monitor New Delhi’s position on the reincarnation issue. The Dalai Lama’s decision to resist Chinese control comes at a time when India and China are seeking to rebuild ties that were weakened following the 2020 military standoff in eastern Ladakh.
India now faces a delicate diplomatic test. Its approach to the reincarnation question will be closely watched by the global community, especially as tensions continue to simmer.
(The author is Assistant Professor at the University of Ladakh, Leh Campus)
